Thursday, May 14, 2020

The dark side of this virus

With all the hanging of crepe about this virus, that it won't have a "season" like the flu, that it's likely to rebound this fall and/or later, one has to wonder if there is an even darker reality that we face.

Maybe the virus just isn't going to stop until we've reached some kind of herd immunity. And I wouldn't count on a vaccine to make that happen. I don't think we can keep up the austerity we're currently undergoing indefinitely. So at some point, we'll relax social rules, the virus will increase, at least some measures will be reinstituted, virus will go down, rules will be relaxed, virus will increase...and so on. Eventually we'll reach some point where some significant percentage of the population has had the virus and most of them are not shedding it anymore.

One might wonder if this implies that all these contact rules are worth it. What they're worth at this stage is in keeping the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

Perhaps the reality is that this virus is going to win, one way or the other, either on a fast or slow timeline.

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